Trying to get a grasp on exactly which candidate has the upper hand in this almost surrealistic election by looking at the polls seems all but impossible. Poll results vary wildly. Electoral college predictions based on polling indicate every possibility from a Hillary Clinton landslide, to a skin-of-his-teeth win by Donald Trump. What is the average voter to believe?
The latest LA Times/USC Tracking Poll shows the GOP nominee with a 5-point lead. The new IBD/TIPP poll shows him up by two. The latest polls from CBS, FOX, and ABC/WaPo show Clinton leading by four. They can’t all be right.
What this points to is a tight race. To gain a better understanding of where we are, you have to look a little deeper. The answers can’t be found in the national polls. But it might all become a little more clear by looking at the underlying numbers.
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First, Trump’s support among African-Americans isn’t anywhere near a majority, but it is the highest of any GOP candidate since 1960. Trump’s African-American support is double that received by Mitt Romney in 2012. Trump is posting similar gains in the Hispanic and Latino communities. In states that are close, swing states where Trump must win, that could be the difference.
One of the states almost everybody agrees Trump must win is Florida. The DRUDGE REPORT just posted data that shows Trump outpacing Romney’s 2012 results in Florida.
According to Drudge, Romney went into Election Day down 161,000 in absentee ballots and early voting. He ended up losing the state by 74,000. Trump only trails Clinton by 32,500 absentee ballots, and Republicans tend to turn out in bigger numbers on Election Day than Democrats in Florida.
The final Trafalgar Group poll before the election shows Trump with a 49.72% to 46.13% lead in Florida in a four-way race. Libertarian candidate Gary Johnson was at 2.43%, and Green Party nominee Jill Stein barely registered at 0.62%. 1.08% said they were still undecided. That is outside the poll’s 2.89% margin of error.
Real Clear Politics shows Hillary with only a 0.2-point lead in Florida, and also shows her trending down. The RCP Electoral Map shows Clinton with a 203-164 lead. Last week they showed her at 264. According to the RCP map, 16 states are listed as toss-ups. Trump needs to win 106 electoral college votes in those crucial states.
A win in Florida would give him 29 of those votes. RCP says Georgia is in play, but Trump will absolutely win there, giving him another 15. RCP says Ohio is also a toss-up, but every poll released over the last couple of weeks shows Trump with a lead outside the margin of error. Add another 18 for Ohio and you have 63 of the required 106 with only three states.
Arizona is also said to be in play by several polling groups, but it is all but unimaginable that Clinton will achieve a victory there. That puts 11 more in Trump’s column, leaving him 32 short of the required 270.
Here’s where it gets dicey, but Trump’s chances are good in New Hampshire (4), Iowa (6), Michigan (16), North Carolina (15), and Pennsylvania (20). Two or three victories in any combination of these states would seal the deal. Several polls show Trump either leading or within the margin of error in all of these states.
There could very well be a couple of surprises in store Tuesday night. Trump has been campaigning in Wisconsin and Minnesota, and polls show he has genuinely put those states in play. Both award 10 electoral votes.
Trump has a very clear, achievable path to victory. Not included in polling are the unknown voters. The voters who are going to turn out for Trump that have never voted, or haven’t voted in many years. The question is, how many of them exist, and how many of them are angry enough to get up off the couch and go stand in line at the voting booth Tuesday.
The liberal media wants you to believe it’s over. That you’re wasting your time to go vote for Trump. Don’t believe them. The only way Clinton wins is if you stay home. Your country needs you.