Trump Wins Iowa In Record Near 30-Point Landslide, Greatest Margin Of Victory In Competitive GOP Caucus In History

Former President Donald Trump easily won the Iowa Republican presidential caucus by a near 30-point margin, garnering 51 percent of the vote, while Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis trailed with 21.2 percent, former South Carolina Gov. Nikki Haley came in third with 19.1 percent and Vivek Ramaswamy got 7.7 percent.

This was a record landslide, the largest margin of victory in a competitive GOP caucus — that is, without a sitting president running — in the state’s history since the advent of the Iowa caucuses in 1972, with Republicans holding their first caucus in 1976.

In 1976, Gerald Ford beat Ronald Reagan 45.3 percent to 42.5 percent, a 2.8 percent margin.

In 1980, George H.W. Bush beat Ronald Reagan 31.6 percent to 29.5 percent, a 2.1 percent margin.

In 1988, Bob Dole beat Pat Robertson 37.4 percent to 24.6 percent, a 12.8 percent margin.

In 1996, Bob Dole beat Pat Buchanan 26 percent to 23 percent, a 3 percent margin.

In 2000, George W. Bush beat Steve Forbes 41 percent to 30.5 percent, a 10.5 percent margin.

In 2008, Mike Huckabee beat Mitt Romney 34 percent to 27 percent, a 7 percent margin.

In 2012, Rick Santorum beat Mitt Romney 25 percent to 25 percent, a near tie (Romney was actually wrongly reported the winner on caucus night).

And in 2016, Ted Cruz beat Donald Trump, 27.6 percent to 24.3 percent, a 3.3 percent margin.

As can be seen, winning Iowa does not necessarily secure a candidate the nomination, with the state only selecting the eventual winner in 1976, 1996 and 2000, or in three out of eight contests, although to be fair 2012 was very close. Nor does winning by a large margin, with the prior 12.8-point record held by Bob Dole in 1988 against then-Vice President George H.W. Bush, who went on to win the nomination relatively easily.

But one thing the 2024 Iowa caucus proved was that the polls showing Donald Trump dominating the GOP presidential race were correct — in fact he led 100 percent of the polls taken — with the RealClearPolling.com average showing Trump with 52.5 percent and Haley at 18.8 percent. Polls actually underreported DeSantis’ support at 15.7 percent.

Still, the polls showed Trump ahead by about 33 points, and he won by nearly 30 points.

Somewhere, one imagines President Joe Biden wondering if having the Justice Department pursue prosecuting his political opponent in an election year was counterproductive.

Now, all eyes to turn New Hampshire’s Jan. 23 primary, where Trump has led 93.5 percent of the polls taken this cycle, with the wind at his back, leading the average of polls 43.5 percent to Nikki Haley’s 29.3 percent and DeSantis’ 6.5 percent. Chris Christie, who had been campaigning exclusively in New Hampshire, has already dropped out.

New Hampshire tends to buck Iowa’s verdict. In fact, in a competitive GOP race, New Hampshire has never selected the same candidate as Iowa. Now, with Trump ahead in that state as well, 2024 will now put that to the test.

In fact, no Republican presidential nominee has ever won the party’s nomination without winning either Iowa or New Hampshire. And so the nation’s first primary could very well determine just how competitive the 2024 field really is against former President Trump. Haley and DeSantis are behind, but with Christie and now Vivek Ramaswamy (he endorsed Trump) out, an opportunity emerges, albeit a narrow one, for there to be a real horse race.

In the meantime, Trump will undoubtedly leave nothing to chance as he looks to lock up an early victory for his party’s nomination. Wins in New Hampshire and South Carolina would virtually guarantee a Trump rout in the race. Stay tuned.

Robert Romano is the Vice President of Public Policy at Americans for Limited Government Foundation.

Cross-posted with The Daily Torch

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