The likely outcome according to current polling and historical precedent is that the Democratic Presidential candidate will win a wide majority of the Black vote, and with Vice President Kamala Harris on the ticket this expectation is raised even further.
However, there is new evidence that Black voters are less likely to support Harris than they were President Joe Biden, and former President Donald Trump is on track to more than double his share of the Black vote in certain swing states.
A recent nationwide New York Times-Siena College poll has Harris leading Trump among Black Americans 72 percent to 19 percent. While this is a broad advantage for Harris, it is a substantially slimmer margin than the 87 percent of the Black electorate who supported Biden in 2020 and marks a six-point gain for Trump, who won thirteen percent of the Black vote four years ago.
When you zero in on certain battleground states, Harris is significantly below Biden’s 2020 numbers with Black voters, while Trump has more than doubled his share of Black voters in Michigan and Pennsylvania.
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The latest Times-Siena College poll focusing on three key battleground states – Michigan, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin – has Trump eating into Harris’ margins.
In Michigan for example, Trump has doubled his share of the Black vote, going from 7 percent in 2020 to 14 percent who intend to support him in November. Harris has lost twelve percentage points with Black voters in Michigan, going from 92 percent of the vote in 2020 to 80 percent who expect to support her in November.
In Wisconsin, Trump is on track to more than double his share of the Black vote. The Times poll has Trump earning 17 percent of the Black vote in Wisconsin compared to eight percent in 2020. Harris is polling a full fifteen points below what Biden earned in Wisconsin, earning just 77 percent of the Black vote in the Times poll to Biden’s 92 percent in 2020.
In Pennsylvania, Trump’s gains among Black voters have been slimmer but he is still ahead of his 2020 numbers. The Times poll has Trump going from 7 percent of the Black vote in 2020 to 10 percent today. Harris has lost eight points compared to what Biden earned in 2020, with the Times poll showing her earning 84 percent of the vote to Biden’s 92 percent in 2020.
Michigan, Wisconsin, and Pennsylvania all boast relatively large Black populations, and let’s not forget just how slim the margins were in 2020.
In Michigan for example, Black voters made up an estimated 12 percent of the electorate or over 650,000 votes in 2020. Trump lost Michigan by less than 155,000 votes.
In Pennsylvania, Black voters made up around 11 percent of the electorate or over 750,000 votes in 2020, and Biden eked out a victory by less than 82,000 votes.
In Wisconsin, Black voters made up around six percent of the electorate or over 194,000 votes, and Biden won that state by just 0.6 percent, or less than 21,000 votes.
The Times poll also supports longstanding evidence that a majority of Black voters do not consider themselves liberal or progressive, but moderate. Over half of Black voters in the poll – 52 percent – identify as moderate, while 25 percent say they are liberal, and 19 percent say they are conservative.
Harris may be popular with the mainstream media and being deluged in fundraising dollars from wealthy donors, but she is arguably the most radical Democratic presidential candidate yet – and that may not play so well with moderate Black voters at the margins.
Harris is likely to do better than Biden did with women and certain other demographics in these battleground states, and she may even turn her numbers around with Black voters before November.
However, it is worth noting that Harris is well underperforming Biden’s 2020 numbers with Black voters in these key states three months out from November. Despite attempts to block Trump from becoming president ranging from sham lawsuits to an attempt on his life, the former president has gained not entirely insignificant support from Black voters.
Manzanita Miller is the senior political analyst at Americans for Limited Government Foundation.
Cross-posted with The Daily Torch
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