Trump Ahead in Four Battleground States Plus the Surprise Group of Voters Turning Against Biden

Manzanita MillerOctober 18, 2023

0 560 5 minutes read

New polling from Redfield & Wilton Strategies shows Former President Trump ahead of President Biden in four out of six battleground states, including two he lost by razor-thin margins in the 2020 election. The data also shows Biden losing double-digits compared to 2020 exit polls with one group mainstream pundits seem to believe Democrats will always win – young people. Voters between 18 and 24 are moving away from Biden by double-digits compared to 2020 and in one state Trump is on track to win Gen Z by 29-percenatge points after losing them by 12 points in 2020.

According to the poll, Trump is now polling ahead of Biden in a head-to-head matchup in Arizona, Florida, North Carolina, and Georgia, while he and Biden are tied in Michigan, and Biden is narrowly ahead in Pennsylvania.

Trump leads Biden by five percentage points in Arizona which records show he lost by a slim 0.3% in 2020 and he leads Biden by 3 percentage points in Georgia which he lost by an even slimmer 0.2% in 2020. Trump is also ahead by five percentage points in Florida which he won by 3.3% in 2020 and he is ahead by five percentage points in North Carolina which he won by 1.4% in 2020. The two are equally matched in Michigan, which Biden won in 2020 by 2.8%, and Biden is narrowly ahead in Pennsylvania by one percentage point, which he won by a narrow 1.2% in 2020.

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If the polling is an early indicator of enthusiasm for each candidate, Biden may be on track to lose in two states he barely won in 2020 – Arizona and Georgia. Pennsylvania and Michigan appear to be the closets races at this time, leaving the possibility open that Trump retrieves two states he lost by over a percentage point in 2020.

However, there are relatively large groups of undecided voters in all six swing states, with 14% of North Carolina voters, 13% of Michigan voters, 12% of Arizona and Georgia voters, 11% of Florida voters, and 10% of Pennsylvania voters saying they are unsure of their pick for president.

The polling goes on to conclude that the economy is the number one issue across all six battleground states, while immigration and abortion come in second and third. Immigration is the second most important issue in Florida and third most important issue in Arizona, while abortion is the second most important issue in five of the six states.

In addition, we are seeing a continuation of a trend Americans for Limited Government Foundation has been tracking for years, with very young voters between ages 18 and 24 – classified as Zoomers – supporting Former President Trump at increasingly higher rates despite what is portrayed in the mainstream press.

In North Carolina for example, Zoomers of the Tik Tok generation between 18 and 24 plan to support Former President Trump by 29 percentage points, 55% to 26%. This is a substantial reversal from the 2020 election, when 18–24-year-olds in North Carolina supported Biden by 12 percentage points, 55% to 43%. Biden’s support among Zoomers has fallen a catastrophic 29-percenatge points in three years, and he is on track to lose a young voters altogether.

While none of the other swing states in the Redfield & Wilton data show Trump outright winning the Gen Z vote in 2024, Zoomer support for Biden is down by double-digits from his 2020 numbers across all six states.

For instance, in Florida Biden secured a full 57% of Zoomers in 2020, but well below half – 43% – intend to vote for Biden in 2024 according to the data. This represents a 14-percentage point drop among Gen Z in Florida compared to the last election.

There is an even steeper decline in Gen Z support for Biden in Georgia, with the president winning 56% of young voters in 2020, but only 39% planning to support him in 2024 according to the Redfield & Wilton data. This is a decline of 17-percentage-points since 2020, a staggering loss of support for President Biden.

In Michigan, there is another steep decline in support for Biden among Zoomers, with Biden earning 61% of their vote in 2020 but only 46% planning to support him in 2024, a 15-percenatge-point decline.

Pennsylvania shows another steep decline in support for Biden among Gen Z, with Biden winning 59% of the Zoomer vote in 2020 but on track to earn only 44% in 2024 according to the poll, a 15-percenatge-point decline.

Arizona is a small state and therefore 2020 exit polls don’t have data broken down for the 18-24-year-old cohort like the other swing states do, but Biden won 18–29-year-olds by 31-percentage points in 2020, or 63% to 32%. The Redfield & Wilton data shows Biden on track to win only 44% of 18- to 24-year-olds next election, a 19-percenatge-point decline.

Former President Trump is dominating in four of six battleground states and appears to be making significant progress with a new generation of young voters while President Biden is suffering double-digit declines in support among Gen Z. Biden’s dismal economic record, failure at the border, and entanglement in Ukraine are costing him the youth vote, and young people are beginning to see through the mainstream media’s barrage of bad press against Former President Trump. Don’t expect the mainstream media to report on Biden’s massive issues with the youth vote anytime soon, however.

Manzanita Miller is an associate analyst at Americans for Limited Government Foundation.

Cross-posted with The Daily Torch

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