It’s a good thing for congressional Democrats that this is March not November, because Republicans currently have an 11-point lead in their bid to recapture control of Congress, according to a new Rasmussen survey released Friday.
“If the elections for Congress were held today,” Rasmussen said, “50% of Likely U.S. Voters would vote for the Republican candidate, while 39% would vote for the Democrat. Just five percent (5%) would vote for some other candidate, but another seven percent (7%) are not sure.”
That doesn’t bode well for a party that cannot seem to understand how American consumers remember when gasoline was about $2.55 a gallon and groceries were less expensive.
Republicans shouldn’t be breaking out the party favors just yet, however. Rasmussen noted that the GOP has lost two points since February, when they led 50-37 percent.
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The country will likely see more such surveys over the next seven months, not only from Rasmussen, but from Gallup, Quinnipiac University and others.
Currently, according to Rasmussen, “The 11-point edge for Republicans in the latest poll is larger than Democrats enjoyed at any time during the 2018 midterm campaign, due both to greater GOP partisan intensity and a 19-point advantage among independents.”
“While 94% of Republican voters say they would vote for their own party’s congressional candidate,” Rasmussen continued, “only 82% of Democrats would vote for the Democratic candidate. Among voters not affiliated with either major party, 46% would vote Republican and 27% would vote Democrat, while 13% would vote for some other candidate and 14% are undecided.”
Rasmussen also reported something else that should make Democrats nervous. “The Republican advantage,” the veteran polling firm revealed, “is strongest among retirees, who favor the GOP by a 20-point margin, 57%-37%, over Democrats.”
Democrats have long relied on retirees for a solid voting bloc. That was before people on fixed incomes watched their life savings evaporate with roller coaster activity on the stock market, before they had to pay more than $4.50 for a gallon of gas and also had to spend more on basic necessities at the supermarket because rising fuel costs are passed along to consumers because it costs more to get the goods to store shelves.
Rasmussen also found something else alarming for Democrats: “The so-called ‘gender gap’ is nearly non-existent in the latest findings, with men (49%) one point less likely than women voters (50%) to prefer Republican congressional candidates.” Women have traditionally also been a reliable demographic for Democrats.
There’s more bad news. Rasmussen’s Daily Presidential Tracking poll shows Joe Biden’s job approval still in the basement. Only 38 percent of likely voters approve of Biden’s job performance, while 60 percent disapprove. Go deeper and Rasmussen says only 20 percent “strongly approve” of Biden’s performance, while 50 percent “strongly disapprove.” Those opinions have a ripple effect on Democrats up and down the scale.
Things can change dramatically between now and November. But if this pattern holds, things will change even more dramatically in 2023.
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