A HUGE Problem With These Jobs Numbers Is Hiding In Plain Sight… And Nobody’s Talking About It

Another example of what Twain called, 'Lies, Damned Lies, and Statistics'

New jobs numbers have dropped, and the left is hoping we’ll see them as a great success. Knowing the history of a complicit media, they’ll do their part to make sure we see it that way. But how can we know for sure?

Liars LOVE Stats

Like any statistical information dump, the Devil is always in the details. The entire role of a political spin team is to cherry-pick snippets of real information and repackage them in a way that tells the story you want your audience to believe.

There are a few ways this administration (like many others) can lie about these kinds of claims. We’ll recap some of them before turning our attention to the one that nobody had been talking about.

Their Favorite Tactics

Administrations can fudge the basic numbers. We see this all the time. It’s a way that bureaucrats can make administrations they favor look more effective than they really are, or make administrations they disfavor look worse than they really are. It can change reporting rules, definitions, leave out important reporting information (think FBI crime numbers omitting data from large cities).

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Another way they can lie is to play around with details of the surrounding context. We’ve seen that when they use COVID closures to make Trump’s job numbers look worse (comparing Trump’s job numbers to Hoover) and Biden’s look better (the natural bounce-back result of ending artificial government closures due to mandates).

Most of us know to watch for those kinds of chicanery. But sometimes even the truth can be a lie when using a far more subtle trick they play… but once you expose the tactic in plain English, even a child can see the logical flaw it is designed to conceal.

We’ll explain their 3-Card-Monte trick with an easy inflation example, and then move to how the complicit media has been fluffing Joe’s pillows in the jobs reporting.

Bad news hidden in plain sight

Inflation is the easy example to explain the principle.

Is a $5000 dollar a year pay bump a good news story? It sure looks like it. The manager can certainly claim he’s taking care of his employees. A five thousand dollar jump is enough that it might make a big difference in how a person can live. Or is it?

We can’t answer that question until we have more context. Are expenses still the same as they were last year? Let’s say your take home pay goes up by $500 a month, but your expenses have jumped by $700 a month, are you better or worse off?

Economists have been bragging about Biden’s economy — and everything from pay increases to the stock markets — without putting it in context of inflation and expense increases. Even after accounting for pay raises, many people are further behind than they ever were. The record credit card burden Americans are carrying are hardly evidence of a healthy financial state.

The jobs announcement

CNN tried to present a cautiously optimistic framing of the June jobs number, while acknowledging some of the significant warning signs.

The June jobs report gave off a “steady-as-she-goes” vibe, featuring slowing — but stable and strong — employment gains of 206,000.

However, the bulk of the month’s job losses came in a sector that’s often looked to as a canary in the coal mine: temporary help services.

That proverbial songbird’s tune just got a whole heck of a lot louder in June.

Temporary help services employment dropped 48,900 last month, according to Bureau of Labor Statistics data. — CNN Business

Even a Biden-friendly media has been bracing us for a potential worst-case inflation/recession scenario if the Fed can’t thread the needle correctly. From another article on the same linked page:

Now, Fed officials are starting to get a taste of what they wished for. It might not end well, though.

Friday’s jobs report showed the unemployment rate rose to 4.1% in June, the highest level since November 2021. It also marked the second straight month that the unemployment rate rose.

The media’s missing data set

The dirty little secret even those ‘bad news’ stories won’t include about these cautiously pessimistic jobs numbers follows the same pattern as the inflation example we discussed earlier.

We  gained 206,000 jobs. That’s the unofficial June jobs number. Even if we give it the benefit of the doubt of being airtight, and not one that gets adjusted downward in a few weeks, we have the same context problem that we saw with the income increase being taken back by increased expenses.

That sounds like a lot of jobs to be gained in a month, but the kind of jobs matters. If someone picks up two modest jobs to soften the blow of losing a six-figure job, that is a statistical win, but not one that benefits society. But even that number is being accounted for by some experts. Here’s one that isn’t:

An increase of 200k jobs in the context of a stable population is a very different story than an increase of 200k jobs in a country where we are blowing out our population numbers by adding hundreds of thousands of new people every month.

Biden’s people are fudging immigration numbers by classifying some of the influx of people as ‘legal’, despite no explicit Congressional authority to do so. Even WITH those Biden-friendly cheats in place, we’re looking at six-figure additions to population every month.

If the media were honest, they would admit the consequences of those immigration numbers on the jobs report. But these are the same partisans who helped conceal the real state of Biden’s mind during an election cycle because they feared those revelations might help his opponent.

Cross-posted with Clash Daily


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