The Hill is reporting that a “leaked survey conducted for the Republican National Committee” has found that a majority of President Donald Trump’s core supporters don’t think Democrats have a chance to take back the House in November, apparently raising alarms that they’re becoming complacent and may not vote in the midterms.
Should that apathy take hold, it is possible that the Democrats could capture more than the 23 seats they need to regain power on Capitol Hill. That could essentially derail the Trump administration’s efforts to “Make America Great Again,” and might allow firebrand Democrats to launch an impeachment effort.
The initial report appeared in Bloomberg Businessweek.
“According to the RNC study, completed on Sept. 2 by the polling firm Public Opinion Strategies, most voters believe Democrats will win back the House—just not Republican voters. Fully half of self-identified Republicans don’t believe Democrats are likely to win back the House. And within that group, 57 percent of people who describe themselves as strong Trump supporters don’t believe Democrats have a chance (37 percent believe they do).
“If overconfident Republican voters stay home, Democrats could win a landslide.”—Bloomberg Businessweek
A recent Rasmussen survey revealed that 46 percent of likely voters would choose a Democrat for Congress, while 42 percent would choose a Republican, which underscores the warning that came from the RNC survey: “We need to make real the threat that Democrats have a good shot of winning control of Congress.”
Part of the problem, according to Bloomberg Businessweek, is that Trump’s repeated talk about a “red wave” has lulled GOP voters into complacency. They trust the president more than the prognosticators who forecast a Hillary Clinton victory in 2016.
Complacency is how people lose elections. According to The Hill, “Fifty-seven percent of people who identified as strong Trump supporters said Democrats don’t have a chance to win big, while 37 percent believe they do, according to the poll.”
What these voters forget is that it was a surprisingly strong turnout of conservatives, and especially gun owners in key states—Wisconsin, Michigan, Pennsylvania and Ohio—that turned the Electoral College tally in Trump’s favor. They turned out. They didn’t stay home. They were not complacent at all.
That is what made the difference two years ago, and if the warnings in Bloomberg and The Hill are correct, it is the only thing that will make a difference in November.