A new survey indicates Republicans nearly doubled their lead in just one week in the “generic ballot” that measures party support in the upcoming congressional elections.
Republicans held a 4-percentage-point lead over Democrats last week in the Rasmussen Reports survey of likely voters, and the latest shows the GOP 7 points ahead, reports Washington Examiner columnist Paul Bedard.
Likely voters prefer Republicans 48%-41%, with just 7% unsure.
Bedard pointed out the gap is significant, because “generic ballot” polls typically underestimate the size of Republican support.
Republican pollsters such as Ed Goeas have observed that Republicans typically score big victories after polls show Democrats with a lead of 3 points or less.
If the margin is within 5 points, he said, the GOP usually picks up some seats.
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Rasmussen has done a breakdown of the generic ballot in the six key battleground states in the 2020 presidential election:
- Arizona: Republican +3
- Georgia: Republican +11
- Michigan: Republican +4
- Ohio: Republican +6
- Pennsylvania: Republican +5
- Wisconsin: Republican +4
Only Ohio went for President Trump in 2020, according to the official tally.
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