There have been more than 3.8 million illegal border crossings on the U.S. border with Mexico since Jan. 2021 when President Joe Biden was sworn into office, far and away a modern record for presidents, according to the latest data by U.S. Customs and Border Protection. The last two years of former President Donald Trump’s term of office, there were 1.3 million. They’ve more than doubled in just two years amid moves by the Biden administration to end Trump’s Remain in Mexico policy and to forestall completion of the border wall.
And now it’s starting to show in the southwestern U.S. in the 2022 elections, with Arizona Republican gubernatorial nominee Kari Lake appearing to form a lead in her race against Arizona Secretary of State Katie Hobbs, leading an average of polls compiled by RealClearPolitics.com 48.2 percent to 46 percent.
In Nevada, Republican gubernatorial nominee Clark County Sheriff Joe Lombardo has similarly jumped ahead in recent polling, slightly leading incumbent Democratic Gov. Steve Sisolak 44.5 percent to 43 percent.
In Texas, Democrat Beto O’Rourke’s own bid to oust incumbent Republican Gov. Greg Abbott is going nowhere fast, trailing Abbott 50.2 percent to 42.2 percent.
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In Nevada and Arizona, the race for the U.S. Senate is similarly contested, with Republican former Nevada Attorney General Adam Laxalt leading Democratic Sen. Catherine Cortez Masto 45.4 percent to 43.2 percent. As for Arizona, Republican Blake Masters has cut Democratic Sen. Mark Kelly’s lead in half, from about 8 points to about 4 points, 48.2 percent to 44.2 percent.
This comes as an AARP poll in early September discovered a trend of Hispanic voters away from Democrats, typically a 65 percent to 35 percent national breakdown for Democrats, a 30-point gap, down to 9-point gaps in both of the Nevada races among older Hispanic voters.
Overall, in 2020, according to the CNN exit poll for this year, Trump significantly improved his standing amongst numerous demographics compared to 2016: white women by 3 points, blacks by 4 points, shrank Biden’s margin on both black men and women by 7 points, shrank Biden’s margin on Latino men by 6 points and on Latina women by 2 points.
If those trends persist in 2022 for the GOP, states like Arizona, Nevada and Texas—with significant Hispanic populations—and Florida, too, could all look a lot more red come November.
Such an outcome appears as a twist of irony for the national Democratic Party, which has banked on lax immigration enforcement, sanctuary cities and public benefits for illegal immigrants as token measures designed to court the Hispanic vote.
From 1986 to 2018, the U.S. has taken in 32.6 million immigrants. 6.4 million or about 20 percent were from Mexico alone, according to the annual Yearbook of Immigration Statistics published by the Department of Homeland Security
Because of the 1986 amnesty plus chain migration, the Mexican share of overall immigration rose from 11 percent in 1986 to 51 percent by 1991 before tailing down again. In 2018, 14.6 percent of all immigrants were from Mexico alone.
87.6 percent of Mexican immigrants are family preferences for either U.S. citizens or lawful permanent residents. Another 1.1 million Mexicans are current on the family preferences waiting lists in 2019, or 33.6 percent of the 3.2 million total worldwide, who then become lawful permanent residents, and afterward, citizens — all legally.
That makes any narrowing Democrats’ historic 2-to-1 advantage among Hispanics—when the nation is so closely divided—a major problem for Democrats as the 2022 elections enter their final weeks. As usual, stay tuned.
Robert Romano is the Vice President of Public Policy at Americans for Limited Government.
Cross-posted with The Daily Torch
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